Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Djibouti
  • Qatar
  • Turkey
  • Belarus

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,857$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(643 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 158.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,128.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(36.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $855$ on 2020-07-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,412$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,362.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,362.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,977$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(737 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,937.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,937.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,735$ on 2020-07-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $246,118$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,337.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237,337.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,107$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,274.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,565$ on 2020-07-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,233,923$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,612,567.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 126.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,612,567.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $146,935$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,266.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(134,266.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,789,125$ on 2020-07-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,020$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,182.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(286,182.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,837$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,684.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $253,749$ on 2020-07-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,997$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(94,301.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,697$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,498.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,498.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,300$ on 2020-07-26

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $206,667$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,669.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(189,669.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,124$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,855.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,855.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,488$ on 2020-07-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 99%
Qatar recovered 91%
Turkey recovered 86%
Belarus recovered 76%
Pakistan recovered 73%
United Arab Emirates recovered 63%
Guatemala recovered 57%
Afghanistan recovered 52%
Guinea recovered 52%
Mauritania recovered 47%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 46%
Portugal recovered 45%
Bahrain recovered 42%
Tajikistan recovered 39%
Croatia recovered 32%
Mali recovered 30%
Saudi Arabia recovered 30%
Yemen recovered 30%
Cabo Verde recovered 22%
Azerbaijan recovered 20%
Russia recovered 19%
Armenia recovered 17%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 14%

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,050$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,123.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,123.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-26

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,305$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,871.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(109,871.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.88 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(185.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,116$ on 2020-07-26

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $226,100$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,877.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(205,877.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,613$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,147.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,147.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,000$ on 2020-07-26

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,132$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 71.7)}}\) (asimptote \(66,914.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $534$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(63.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{598.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 74.0)}}\) (asimptote \(598.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,173$ on 2020-07-26